Major central banks spent this week navigating a delicate balance: maintaining credibility in their inflation fighting campaigns while acknowledging that the escalating conflict involving Iran has injected fresh uncertainty into the global economic outlook. The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, European Central Bank, and several others opted to keep interest rates unchanged, signalling caution rather than complacency as geopolitical tensions threaten to reshape the path of in

It will not surprise you that this week’s missive focuses on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has issued his first public statement calling for the Strait of Hormuz to “remain closed”, signalling a hardening of Iran’s strategy. He also warned that Iran would continue targeting US bases in the Gulf, despite intelligence sources suggesting he has already been injured during the conflict. The closure of the strait—through whic

Our thoughts this week have focussed on those caught up in the Middle Eastern conflict centred around Iran and Israel, that has since spread out into the surrounding region. The latest escalation—particularly Iran widening its response beyond Israel and signalling potential disruption to the Strait of Hormuz—has increased concerns about a spike in global energy prices and the risk of a broader economic slowdown. The Strait remains open, but higher insurance costs and the thre